Puntland’s Deyr Rains Expected Above Normal This October–December
IMC — Information Management Centre for Water & Land Resources
01 September 2026 | Garowe, Puntland, Somalia
This week IMC Puntland brought government partners, humanitarian and development organizations, local administrations, civil society and media together in Garowe to present the Deyr (October–December) 2026 Seasonal Climate Outlook, based on the ICPAC GHACOF74 forecast. The workshop also reviewed the below-normal Gu’ (March–May) 2026 season that preceded it.
The outlook points to above-normal rainfall across most of the Horn of Africa this Deyr, a season that normally carries up to 70% of Somalia’s annual rain. Onset is expected early to normal across parts of Puntland, and temperatures are forecast to run above average with 90% probability.
The main driver is a strengthening El Niño (Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly at +1.8°C, with an 81% chance it becomes very strong this season), alongside a possible shift toward a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. Both 1997 and 2023 — past El Niño years — brought wetter-than-normal rainfall to Somalia, consistent with this year’s forecast.
By zone: Zone II (Garowe, Gaalkacyo, Qardho, Laascaanod and surrounding districts) carries a 65% chance of above-normal rain; Zone III (Bossaso, Qandala, Eyl and surrounding districts) carries 55%. Parts of Ceerigaabo, Laasqoray and Iskushuban are classified as dry-season areas and aren’t expected to see meaningful Deyr rain.
Participants agreed on priority preparedness steps: strengthening early warning and community-level action, securing water sources and health/education continuity plans, protecting livestock and fishing livelihoods, and using media to push rainfall and hazard advisories out quickly.
Download the full technical statement below for the complete forecast methodology, district-by-district breakdown and full list of preparedness actions.
Contact: @imcpuntland | www.imcpuntland.so | in**@*********nd.so
