Available rainfall forecasts from major climate information services indicate differing outlooks for the April to June 2022 season.
According to the March to May 2022 seasonal forecast issued by IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Center (ICPAC) during the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF60), there is a likelihood of receiving average to above average rainfall amounts in some areas in Puntland State of Somalia. This is also in line with the Somali traditional climate experts.
Forecast from other global sources (NOAA and IRI) indicate that cumulative rainfall during the Gu season is most likely to be average in Puntland.

Some localized areas in Bosaaso, Qardho, Balidhidin, Ufayn, Carmo and Boocame districts are also expected to receive a good rainfall amount during the Gu’ season.
The rest of the Puntland districts seems to be a transition zone which has normal rainfall amount; however extended drought impacts are likely to be experienced due to the failure of three consecutive rainy seasons since October 2020.
Nugal, Sool, Dharoor and Golis Mountain livelihood zones are more likely to have improved pasture conditions following a rainfall period.
For the time being, all sectors are advised to prepare for both the best and worst-case scenarios.
In order to monitor this outlook, IMC will produce weekly weather updates to stakeholders for better decision making.
Users are advised that this is a forecast and at times there may be discrepancies between estimates and actual amounts of rainfall received