OVERVIEW

The probabilistic rainfall forecast for Puntland from October to December 2024 suggests an increased probability of drier conditions. The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), particularly during the 68th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF68), indicated a 55% likelihood of below-normal rainfall and drier-than-usual conditions during the OND 2024 period across the majority of regions. The probabilities for normal and above-normal rainfall are 25% and 20%, respectively.

The districts of Eyl, Dangoroyo, Qardho, Dhahar, Badhan, Laasqoray, and Ceerigaabo have an equal probability of receiving normal or below-normal rainfall.

There is a 66% chance of La Niña events developing between September and November, with below-normal OND rainfall, and a 74% chance of these conditions continuing into 2025.
The probability of warmer temperatures is highest in the Puntland regions. Analyzing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the Nino 3.4 index suggests similarities to the conditions of 2020 and 1983. These years, both characterized by La Niña events, experienced drier conditions, aligning with the forecast for OND 2024.

Stakeholders are advised to take anticipatory action for the coming Deyr season, as is expected to experience below-normal rains which could result drought and warmer than usual temperature.