Deyr Seasonal Outlook Oct-Dec 2022

Puntland remains in an extreme and severe drought situation which resulted in immense displacements and loss of livestock. The rainfall forecast from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) at (GHACOF61) forum predicted that the Deyr rainfall is expected to be below normal.

The amount of anticipated rainfall, as shown on the probabilistic forecast map, is below 50%, indicating that it is below normal.

This will lead to the 5th failed consecutive rainy season which could be attributed to climate change affecting the east African region.

The consequences of the expected failed rainy season would result in a shortage of surface water, depletion of the water table, dry-up shallow wells, boreholes, and pasture loss, all of which could intensify internal displacement (IDPs) and famine.

Considering the outlook of the Deyr rain season, it is necessary to be prepared for mitigation measures for the negative impact of the expected possible failure of the Deyr season so as to make an appropriate decision.

The Information Management Center for Water & Land Resources will regularly produce forecasts on a weekly basis during the rainy season.

IMC advises the community that this forecast is subject to change at any time, and may differ from the amount of expected rain and the actual amount of rain.