Gu’ Rainfall Performance and Pasture Condition Updates in Puntland.

• Early of Gu’ rainy season, the Puntland Information Management Center for Land and Water Resources (IMC) stated that the Gu’ Seasonal outlook would be below average, at the same time mentioning that some localized areas in Puntland will receive moderate rains.
• The overall rainfall distribution in Puntland between March-May Gu’ 2022 ware below average characterized by poor spatial and temporal distribution, which means a failure of four consecutive rainfall seasons.
• The Coastal districts (Caluula, Bosaso, Iskushuban, Banderbayla, Eyl, and Jariiban) didn’t receive Gu’ 2022 rain, remaining the most drought-affected areas in Puntland, as demonstrated below the map.

The below table illustrates district rainfall distribution during Gu’ season 2022 and it indicates that poor rains have been received as it was below the average except for a few localized areas including Galdogob and Las’Anod districts

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index/ Pasture Conditions in Puntland

May 2022 NDVI Map analysis shows the average areas with a negative change in vegetation cover and areas with positive change.

Due to poor Gu’ rainfall distribution in Puntland Regions, the vegetation and pasture condition remains dry. There is a significant vegetation decrease in all parts of Puntland except some localized areas around Gal-dogob and Buuhoodle districts which received below-normal rains in May this year.

A Comparison of Gu’ time-series data from NDVI anomaly for the last three years is indicating an enormous deficit is visible this year.

According to the Field reports from the recent IMC drought assessment and Pasture condition analysis, there is a complete pasture loss in all parts of Puntland.

Reduced Pasture and browse have resulted in livestock diseases, weakening animal body conditions, increased migration of pastoral communities, and a number of animal death especially goats, sheep, and camels have been reported and witnessed in some parts of Puntland.

Crops growing in the oasis farms in Puntland are adversely affected by water shortage as a result of dried shallow wells and crop pests and diseases and this will upsurge the vegetable prices in the market and their availability.

Thus, if the extreme drought persists in the coming three months of July, August, and September as there’s no rainfall expected in that period, it may lead to famine, loss of human lives and animals, increase in Internal Displaces People (IDPs), and huge socio-economic and livelihood impacts.

Recommendations

• The government and international communities are advised to take a quick response to the drought-affected communities by prioritizing water-related issues including rehabilitation of water infrastructures, Distribution of temporary water storage facilities, and emergency water trucking.
• Distribution of animal fodder to drought-affected communities.
•  Food supply to Vulnerable households and rural communities.
• Proper conservation and management of limited water sources.

IMC will monitor and produce a regular update on the drought conditions in Puntland.